Grain Highlights 23.11.2023

The authorities in Russia have imposed a ban on the export of hard wheat from the country until May 31, 2024.

In October, Russia exported 109,000 tons of wheat flour, marking a record for the country. The export for the period from July to October reached 336,000 tons (compared to 274,000 tons the previous year). Key buyers include China with 77,000 tons, Iraq with 63,000 tons, and Afghanistan with 45,000 tons. The total export for the 2022/23 season is 795,000 tons (compared to 521,000 tons in 2021/22), with Iraq, Afghanistan, and China as major buyers.

Russian authorities have imposed a ban on the export of hard wheat from the country until May 31, 2024. The export quota for grains from February 15 to June 30, 2024, is set at 24 million tons.

FAS USDA has revised down its forecast for corn production in Bulgaria for 2024/25 to 2.5 million tons. The export is expected to be 1 million tons (a decrease of 0.4). Wheat production is estimated at 6.2 million tons from a cultivated area of 1 million hectares (usually 11-12). Wheat exports in 2023/24 are projected to be 6 million tons (5.9).

According to Datagro's forecast for 2023/24, soybean production in Brazil will be 156.6 million tons (a decrease of 7.1 from the previous estimate and 0.7 from 2022/23). Corn production is estimated at 119.6 million tons (a decrease of 4.8 and 136.1), including a first production of 25.9 million tons (a decrease of 0.3 and 27.8) and a second production of 93.6 million tons (a decrease of 4.6 and 108.2). Agroconsult predicts soybean production at 161.6 million tons and corn at 127.8 million tons. Unpredictable weather conditions contribute to diverse predictions.

China has purchased the largest amount of Soft Red Winter wheat from the United States since the beginning of October, totaling 110,000 tons. With sales of 220,000 tons and 181,500 tons in the first and second weeks of October, China has secured the highest amount in the last 10 years.

According to Cereals Canada's forecast, the wheat production for 2023/24 in Canada is 29.8 million tons, slightly below the 2022/23 figure. The wheat is of very high quality.

In September, soybean processing in Brazil reached 3.9 million tons (a 9% decrease from August and 3% from September 2022). Year-to-date processing is 36.6 million tons (a 6% decrease). The soybean production is expected to be 164.7 million tons, with processing at 54 million tons, soymeal production at 41.3 million tons, and soyoil production at 10.9 tons.

Refinitiv Commodities Research forecasts corn production in Argentina for 2023/24 at 54 million tons (an increase of 1.9 from the previous estimate and 12.6 from 2022/23). Soybean production is expected to be 48.9 million tons (an increase of 1.7 and 16.9).

Tunisia has purchased 100,000 tons of wheat at prices ranging from 279.50 to 292.05 USD/ton C&F and 75,000 tons of barley at prices between 227.93 and 235 USD/ton C&F with deliveries scheduled within December - January.

According to USDA's November report for 2023/24, wheat consumption in Egypt is projected to be 20.6 million tons, the second-highest in history. Imports are expected to increase by only 7% to 12 million tons, which will reduce ending stocks to the lowest level in the last 20 years.