Grain Highlights 01.12.2023

Nord Cereales, managing grain terminals in the French port of Dunkirk, confirms the shipment of French grain to China in December.

During the week of December 6-12, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 3,808.1 rubles/ton (compared to 3,820.2 the previous week), no duty will be applied on barley, and the export tax on corn will be 618.9 rubles/ton (compared to 642).

From July 1 to December 1, 2023, Ukraine has exported 13.097 million tons of grain (compared to 18.082 the previous year), including 3.857 million tons in November (4.354). The exports include 5.909 million tons of wheat (1.278), 874,000 tons of barley (192,000), and 6.18 million tons of corn.

Authorities in Kazakhstan plan to introduce an export tax on wheat, set at a minimum of 20%, or 60 EUR/ton. A ban on the export of hard wheat is being discussed for a certain period.

The European Commission forecasts ending stocks of soft wheat in the EU for 2023/24 at 18.3 million tons (compared to 19.1 in the previous estimate). The estimate for the feed wheat consumption is increased by 1 million tons due to a weak oat production. Soft wheat exports remain unchanged at 31 million tons. Barley production is expected to be at a 12-year minimum of 46.9 million tons (47.5), while corn production forecast remains unchanged at 59.9 million tons. The forecast for rapeseed production is 19.9 million tons (19.8), the highest in the last 9 years.

Nord Cereales, managing grain terminals in the French port of Dunkirk, confirms the shipment of French grain to China in December. Earlier information suggested a delay in these shipments. Purchases amount to 2-2.5 million tons with a delivery period from December to March.

According to FranceAgriMer data as of November 27, 2023, 80% of winter wheat crops in France are in good and excellent condition for the 2024/25 crop (a decrease of 3% for the week and 98% compared to the previous year). 83% of the planned wheat areas are sown (+9% and 99%). Winter barley is sown on 92% of the planned areas (+6% and 100%), with 80% of the crops being in good and excellent condition (+5% and 97%).

According to data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange as of November 29, 2023, in Argentina, 32% of the planned corn areas have been sown (+6% for the week and 25% compared to the previous year). 98% of the crops are in satisfactory and excellent condition (compared to 75% the previous year). Soybeans are sown on 44% of the planned areas (+9% and 29%), and sunseed has been sown on 97% of the planned areas (+3% and 93%). Wheat for 2023/24 season has been harvested on 36% of the areas (+10% and 23%), with 4.45 million tons of grain harvested at an average yield of 2.2 tons/hectare (1.8 weeks earlier). The increase in yields will force analysts to revise their estimates for the production.

Jordan has purchased 60,000 tons of forage barley at a price of 243.5 USD/ton C&F, with delivery at the end of February 2024.

Taiwan has purchased 109,200 tons of wheat from the United States with delivery in February.