Grain Highlights 12.01.2024

13 Jan, 2024
Grain Highlights 12.01.2024
Patria Agronegocios is reducing its forecast for the soybean production in Brazil for 2023/24 by 7.5 million tons to 143.2 million tons (down by 11.4% compared to 2022/23).

- During the week starting on January 17, 2024, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 3,946.5 rubles/ton (compared to 4,165.9 a week earlier). The export tax on corn will be 973.1 rubles/ton (1,431.7), while barley remains duty-free.

- From July to December, Russia's grain exports reached 37.25 million tons (compared to 33.7 the previous year). Wheat exports were 29.7 million tons (28.9), barley exports reached 4.7 million tons (3.5), and corn exports were 2.727 million tons (1.18).

- From July 1, 2023, to January 12, 2024, Ukraine exported 20.239 million tons of grain (compared to 24.208 the previous year), including 1.773 million tons in January (1.462). Exports included 8.069 million tons of wheat (8.802), 1.173 million tons of barley (1.693), and 10.85 million tons of corn (13.626).

- Patria Agronegocios reduces its forecast for the soybean production in Brazil for 2023/24 by 7.5 million tons to 143.2 million tons (down 11.4% from 2022/23). The corn production is projected to reach 110.3 million tons (down 2.2% and 21.36%). These reductions are significant and diverge from other analysts' forecasts, and it remains to be seen whether they will materialize.

- According to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics in November 2023, Australia exported 1.17 million tons of wheat and durum (compared to 1.4 million in October). Major customers included Indonesia (202,400 tons), China (171,800 tons), and Vietnam (108,700 tons).

- In November, China received 9.82 million tons of soybeans, slightly below expectations of 10-11 million tons. In 2023, wheat imports into the country increased by 11.4% compared to 2022.

- Lebanon purchased 30,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat with 11.5% protein content at a price of 253.5 USD/ton C&F.

- In its January report, the International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts a global wheat production of 788.3 million tons for 2023/24 (compared to 786.6 in November and 803.7 in 2022/23). Canada's production is expected to reach 32 million tons (29.8 and 34.3), Argentina's wheat production is expected at 15 million tons (+0.3 and 25.5). Wheat production in Australia will reach 25.5 million tons (+1.1 and -37%), and wheat production in Brazil is estimated at 8.1 million tons (-1.5 and -23%). Global wheat exports are projected to be 197.9 million tons (195.7 and 207.6), with ending wheat stocks at 265.6 million tons (264 and 281.7).