Grain Highlights 21.01.2024

According to data from the Statistical Service of China, the country received 27.13 million tons of corn in 2023, which is 31.6% more than in 2022.

- During the week of January 24-30, the export tax on Russian wheat reached 3,588.5 rubles/ton (compared to 3,946.5 a week earlier). The export tax on barley will be 169.2 rubles/ton and an export tax of 644.2 rubles/ton (previously 973.1) will now be applied for corn.

- From July 1, 2023, to January 19, 2024, Ukraine exported 21.446 million tons of grain (25.136 million tons the previous year), including 2.97 million tons in January (compared to 2.39 million). The exports included 8.47 million tons of wheat (846,000), 1.259 million tons of barley (185,000), and 11.567 million tons of corn (1.941 million). Ukrainian exports have surpassed those of the previous year for another month, marking a success for Ukrainians.

- According to data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange as of January 18, 2024, Argentina has planted 97% of the planned soybean areas. 55% of the crops are in good or excellent condition, with moisture deemed optimal on 90% of the areas. Corn has been planted on 93% of the planned areas, with only 3% of the crops in poor condition. Wheat has been harvested on 98% of the areas, with 14.6 million tons of grain collected, and the total wheat production is expected to reach 15.1 million tons.

- According to China's Statistical Service, 27.13 million tons of corn were delivered to the country in 2023, a 31.6% increase from 2022. In December alone, imports reached a record 4.95 million tons (3.59, the previous best in November 2023, and +400% compared to December 2022). This import surge aligns with China's record corn production in 2023 – 288.8 million tons (+4% compared to 2022). Wheat imports for the month were 610,000 tons (-7.6%), and for the year, they totalled 12.1 million tons (+21.5%). Barley imports were 1.66 million tons (+36.1%), and for the year, they reached 11.3 million tons (+96.6%). Sorghum imports were 350,000 tons (-35.2%), and for the year, imports reached 5.21 million tons (-49%). In 2023, vegetable oil deliveries reached 9.81 million tons (+51%), with December accounting for 810,000 tons (-12%). Rapeseed oil imports decreased to 230,000 tons in December but increased to 2.36 million tons for the year (+122%), and soyoil imports for the year reached 400,000 tons (+16%). Grain imports in 2023 increased by 8.8 million tons compared to 2022, assuming China had excellent productions. However, the floods in July caused damage to wheat, turning about 20 million tons into fodder, and it is likely a significant portion of this quantity was destroyed. China's resilience to replenish stocks immediately, regardless of the losses (on paper), suggests a tense grain balance, and some consumption growth is still expected.

- According to an estimate by CNGOIC as of the week ending on January 12, 2024, soybean stocks in China increased by 8% to 7 million tons, which is 33% more than the previous month and 65% more than the previous year. Soymeal stocks are 980,000 tons (a 1% decrease for the week, +11% for the month, and +100% for the year). Soybean processing in China was 1.2 million tons for the period from January 6 to January 12 (+6% for the week and -17% for the previous year).

- From December 2023, corn exports from India have almost ceased due to high domestic prices and high demand for fodder and ethanol. Typically, the country exports 250,000 – 300,000 tons of corn monthly, which has now decreased to 30,000 tons. Key buyers such as Bangladesh, Vietnam, Malaysia, Nepal, and Sri Lanka are purchasing cheap corn from South America. Indian corn is priced at FOB 300 USD/ton, while South American corn is priced at 230 USD/ton.

- According to data from Azerbaijan's customs service, 226,060 tons of wheat were delivered to the country in November, 1.175 million tons from January to November 2023, and 1.168 million tons in 2020.

- Jordan has announced a tender to purchase 120,000 tons of milling wheat of any origin with delivery within April-May. On January 17, 2024, the country purchased 120,000 tons of milling wheat at a price of 269 USD/ton C&F with delivery within March-April.

- Egypt's state-owned company GASC has purchased 47,500 tons of sunseed oil at a price of 900 USD/ton C&F with delivery over February-March.