During the week of February 7–13, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 3,804.6 rubles/ton (3,630.2 the previous week). The export tax on barley 827 rubles/ton (512), and export tax on corn will be 1,339.8 rubles/ton (926). The indicative prices for calculating the duty are 251.1 USD/ton for wheat, 190.9 USD/ton for barley, and 199.1 USD/ton for corn.

According to data from the Ukrainian Agrarian Club, in January, Ukraine exported 6.72 million tons of grain and oilseeds and products, reaching the record level of December. This includes 5.3 million tons of grain, 0.76 million tons of oilseeds, and 0.66 million tons of vegetable oils.

From the beginning of the season until February 1, 2024, Ukraine exported 23.9 million tons of grain (27.1 million tons a year earlier), including 5.3 million tons in January (4.2 million the previous year). The exports comprised 9.2 million tons of wheat (9.7 million a year earlier), 1.4 million tons of barley (1.8 million), and 12 million tons of corn (15.3 million).

According to the Union of Vegetable Oil Producers in Bulgaria, there is currently a shortage of sunseed in the country. The processing industry can handle twice the amount of sunseed produced domestically. Supplies from Romania and Moldova are limited. There are no deliveries from Ukraine now because the Ukrainian government is not issuing export licenses. The goal is to meet the needs of local factories with raw materials, which are also experiencing a shortage.

Refinitiv's forecast indicates that warm weather in Western Europe and the absence of snow cover in central regions are reasons to reduce the forecast for the new 2024 soft wheat production by 1% to 124.5 million tons, which is 1.3 million tons below the 2023 achievement. The rapeseed production estimate remains unchanged at 18.8 million tons (19.6 million).

In 2023/24, Pakistan is expected to export a record 1.5 million tons of corn according to the USDA forecast. The large production and reduced domestic consumption will create conditions for export. In the coming months, exports will lose momentum because the available low-moisture corn has already been exported, and what remains has higher moisture content. The government has banned wheat imports due to sufficient supplies in the country. In recent years, Pakistan has been a major wheat importer.

According to the latest AMIS report, in 2023/24, the global wheat production is projected to reach 788.5 million tons (+1.5 compared to the previous estimate and 806 in 2022/23). Global stocks will be 319.7 million tons (+0.4 and 323). The corn production will reach 1,229 million tons (+10.4 and 1,169), with ending stocks of 315 million tons (+6 and 286). The soybean production forecast remains unchanged at 395.5 million tons (372).