Grain Highlights 04.03.2024

According to Strategie Grains' forecast for 2024, the rapeseed production in the EU is projected to reach 18.3 million tons (-0.1 compared to the previous estimate and -1.6 compared to 2023).

- In 2023/24, sunseed oil production in Russia is projected to be 7.55 million tons (+13.5% compared to 2022/23). The sunseed oil productions in the preceding years were 5.298 million tons in 2020/21, 5.866 million tons in 2021/22, and 6.64 million tons in 2022/23. Sunseed oil exports from Russia in 2023/24 are estimated at 4.590 million tons, compared to 4.016 million tons in 2022/23, 2.637 million tons in 2021/22, and 2.993 million tons in 2020/21.

- In February, wheat exports from the Russian port of Novorossiysk reached 2.191 million tons, which is 45% more than the previous year. The major clients were Egypt with 601,300 tons, the UAE with 136,900 tons, Libya with 133,600 tons, and Saudi Arabia with 130,000 tons.

- According to IKAR's forecast for 2024, the sunseed cultivation areas in Russia will be between 9,550 and 9,700 thousand hectares (compared to 9,818 in 2023), soybean areas will be between 3,900 and 4,000 thousand hectares (3,628), and rapeseed areas between 2,200 and 2,300 thousand hectares (2,108).

- From July 1, 2023, to March 4, 2024, Ukraine has exported 29.951 million tons of grain (32,938 the previous year), including 270,000 tons in March (641,000 in total). The exports included 11.935 million tons of wheat (163,000), 1.623 million tons of barley (none), and 16.113 million tons of corn (107,000).

- As of February 29, 2024, in Ukraine, 92% of corn areas have been harvested, resulting in 28.95 million tons of grain, including 121,000 tons in the last week.

- According to APC-Inform data, in February, sunseed oil exports from Ukraine reached 603,000 tons (-1% compared to January), making it the second-highest monthly figure for the year. The record for February was set in 2019/20 at 627,000 tons. During the month, the EU imported 364,100 tons of oil, Turkey 81,600 tons, and India 38,100 tons.

- According to FAS USDA's estimate for 2023/24, Kazakhstan is expected to export 10 million tons of wheat and wheat flour, which is 0.8 million tons less than the previous season. Barley exports are projected to be 1 million tons (+0.125%).

- According to Oil World, in the last six months, sunseed oil stocks in Turkey have been decreasing. From October to December, Turkey imported 228,800 tons of sunseed oil (compared to 224,100 the previous year), including 173,100 tons from Ukraine, 39,700 tons from Russia, and 13,200 tons from Serbia. The total import for 2023/24 is expected to reach 1.18 million tons (1.26 million in 2022/23), with domestic consumption at 1.44 million tons (1.31 million), local production at 810,000 tons (940,000), and exports at 660,000 tons (709,000). In 2024/25, the sunseed production is expected to decrease to 1.28 million tons (compared to 1.73 million in 2023/24), with imports at 450,000 tons (1.05 million tons), processing at 1.84 million tons (2.24 million).

- As of February 26, 2024, durum wheat sowing in France has reached 91% of the planned areas (+1% for the last week and 97% the previous year). Seventy-four percent of these fields are in good or excellent condition (compared to 91% in 2023). For soft wheat, 68% of the crops are in good condition (-1% and 95%).

- According to Strategie Grains' forecast for 2024, rapeseed production in the EU is expected to reach 18.3 million tons (-0.1 compared to the previous estimate and -1.6 compared to 2023). The most significant decline in the production is expected in Romania and Poland, leading to increased imports from Ukraine and Australia, especially if there are shipping problems through the Red Sea and from Canada. The sunseed production will be 10.7 million tons (+9% compared to 2023), and soybean production will reach 3.1 million tons (+8%).

- Algeria has announced a tender for the purchase of milling wheat of unspecified origin, with delivery scheduled for June.