Grain Highlights 15.07.2024

IKAR has raised its forecast for Russia's wheat production in 2024 from 82 million tons to 83.2 million tons. The total grain production is forecasted at 128 million tons.

- IKAR has raised its forecast for Russia's wheat production in 2024 from 82 million tons to 83.2 million tons. The total grain production is forecasted at 128 million tons.

- According to a USDA forecast for 2024/25, sunseed production in Russia will be 16.5 million tons (-3% compared to June, -4% compared to 2023/24, and +6% compared to the average over five years). The average yield will be 1.74 tons/hectare (-3%, -6%, and slightly above the five-year average).

- From July 1 to 14, 468,200 tons of wheat were exported from the Russian port of Novorossiysk (641,500 a year earlier). The largest customers were Egypt with 159,400 tons, Libya with 86,000 tons, and Saudi Arabia with 66,000 tons.

- For the week starting on 07/17/2024, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 1,780.5 rubles/ton (+4.7% compared to the previous week). For another week, barley (14th consecutive week) and corn (13th consecutive week) exports are duty-free.

- According to an assessment by Ukroliyaprom, exports of rapeseed oil from Ukraine reached a record 422,000 tons in 2023/24. The biggest customers are China, the EU, Malaysia, and Singapore.

- According to data from FranceAgriMer as of 07/08/2024, the harvesting campaign of soft wheat in France has been conducted on 4% of the areas (+3% for the week, 26% last year, and 19% on average over the last five years). The condition of the crops is the worst in the last five years due to the excessive rainfall and lack of sufficient sunlight. 57% of the crops are in good to excellent condition (58% a week earlier and 80% a year earlier). Over the next few weeks, the weather in France will be dry and warm, which will accelerate the campaign.

- According to Conab, in 2023/24, the production of cereal crops in Brazil is 299.27 million tons (-20.54 million tons compared to 2022/23). However, the production is the second-largest in history. The reduction is influenced by El Niño. The soybean production is 147.34 million tons (-7.27), and corn production is 115.86 million tons (-16.03).

- According to a forecast by the Rosario Grain Exchange, the wheat production in Argentina for 2024/25 will be 20.5 million tons (21 in 2023/24). As of 07/10/2024, 92.9% of the planned areas have been sown (+7.6% for the week). 97.2% of the crops are in normal, good, and excellent condition. Moisture deficiency is reported on 31.7% of the areas (+5.4% for the week).

- On 07/12/2024, the government of Pakistan imposed a ban on the import of wheat and wheat flour into the country.