The EUR/USD currency pair dropped to 1.0489. The price of US WTI light crude oil declined to $68.64 per barrel.

Oil prices continued to decline on Tuesday as investors factored in the potential ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, which weighed on the risk premium for crude oil. On Monday, Lebanon and Israel reportedly reached an agreement to halt the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Although the news eased fears of supply disruptions from the Middle East, the conflict has not significantly impacted oil deliveries this year to justify war-driven price premiums. The vulnerability of oil prices to geopolitical events lacks fundamental support. The inability to sustain recent gains reflects weakening global demand for crude oil and suggests a volatile market ahead. The ceasefire in Lebanon reduces the likelihood of the incoming U.S. administration imposing strict sanctions on Iranian crude oil.

Yesterday, March wheat futures in Chicago rose by 2 1/4 cents to $5.58 per bushel. Wheat futures in both Chicago and Paris increased. Light rainfall is expected in the central US, but even without it, winter wheat crops are in excellent condition, a rarity in recent years. EU soft wheat exports are down 30% compared to the previous season. South Korea purchased 50,000 tons of U.S. wheat, and Jordan bought 60,000 tons of unspecified origin. Tunisia is seeking to buy 100,000 tons each of soft and durum wheat. Algeria purchased an additional unspecified amount of wheat yesterday at 267 USD/ton C&F, primarily from the Black Sea region. SovEcon has reduced its forecast for Russian grain and wheat exports for 2024/25, with total grain exports now expected to be 52 million tons (down from 53.6 million) and wheat exports at 44.1 million tons (down from 45.9 million). The reduction in wheat exports is attributed to anticipated export restrictions from February to June, capping exports at 10 million tons during that period. Due to recent dry weather in Russia and Ukraine, winter wheat acreage is expected to shrink, and crop development is slow. While some rainfall has occurred recently, it has been limited. Turkey is also experiencing prolonged dryness.

Yesterday, CBOT March corn futures dropped by 5 cents to $4.28 per bushel. Corn futures fell in both Chicago and Paris, with Chicago's decline linked to analyst concerns that changes to US import tariffs might prompt trading partners to reduce corn purchases in retaliation. EU corn imports are up 7% from the previous season. South Korea purchased 133,000 tons and 65,000 tons of feed corn of unspecified origin. According to Anec, Brazil’s November corn exports are projected at 5.1 million tons, down 0.7 million tons from earlier estimates.

Chicago January soybean futures fell by 2 1/4 cents to $9.83 1/2 per bushel. Soybean and soymeal futures declined in Chicago, while soyoil futures rose. Rapeseed futures in Paris and canola in Canada also fell. Soybean futures in Chicago followed corn's downward trend. EU soybean imports are up 7% compared to last season. Anec predicts Brazil will export 2.46 million tons of soybeans in November, down 0.34 million tons from the prior week. According to Indonesia's Ministry of Energy, biodiesel B50 will be introduced in 2026, requiring the construction of 7–9 new plants with a combined investment of $360 million. Current annual biodiesel consumption is 15.8 million kiloliters, projected to increase by 3.9 million kiloliters. A roadmap for B100 fuel is also under development. Meteorologists recently forecast that La Niña will not fully develop, with no significant anomalies expected. Weather in South America remains stable, supporting strong crop development for both corn and soybeans.