The EUR/USD currency pair rose to 1.0415. The price of US WTI light crude oil fell to 75.83 USD per barrel.

Oil prices declined on Tuesday as investors assessed the newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans to implement new tariffs later than expected while simultaneously increasing oil and gas production in the United States. The initial sense of relief that tariffs were not an immediate focus on Trump's first working day was quickly overshadowed by reports of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as early as February. The President did not impose any major new trade measures immediately upon taking office on Monday but directed federal agencies to investigate unfair trade practices by other countries.

Trump stated that he is considering imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico starting February 1, rather than on his first day in office as previously promised. Meanwhile, the potential increase in U.S. oil production remains a significant obstacle to the supply and demand dynamics of crude oil.

On Monday, Trump outlined an extensive plan to accelerate the issuance of permits for oil, gas, and electricity production to maximize the already record-high energy output in the U.S. He also promised to replenish strategic reserves—a move that could positively impact oil prices by increasing demand for U.S. crude.

The market surged yesterday after the new U.S. president did not implement his promised import tariffs on the first day. Dry weather in parts of Argentina also supported prices.

Yesterday, March wheat futures in Chicago rose by 20 cents to $5.58 3/4 per bushel. Wheat futures in both Chicago and Paris saw significant gains. For the week ending January 16, 2025, U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 261,786 tons (compared to 299,190 the previous week and 315,186 a year earlier), bringing total exports for the season to 13.28 million tons (compared to 10.72 million last season). Japan announced a tender to purchase 126,893 tons of wheat from the United States, Canada, and Australia. As of January 19, 2025, wheat exports from the EU reached 6.75 million tons.

Between January 1–20, Russia exported 1.387 million tons of grain, down 50% from the previous year. Wheat exports totaled 1.191 million tons (-43.3%), barley exports reached 124,000 tons, and corn exports were 72,500 tons. The largest wheat buyers were Egypt (237,800 tons, down from 421,000), the UAE (131,300 tons, up from 22,800), Kenya (80,800 tons), Bangladesh (62,300 tons), and Vietnam (57,000 tons). Russian wheat exports have declined sharply, forcing Russian prices to fall last week. Ukrainian prices also dropped. Over the past week, only 390,000 tons of wheat were exported from Russia, compared to 520,000 the previous week. Egypt’s state agency Mostakbal Misr purchased a batch of Russian wheat for January delivery. Egypt’s strategic wheat reserves are sufficient to meet domestic demand for the next four months. Thailand purchased 195,000 tons of feed wheat from Australia at a price of 256.95 USD/ton C&F, with delivery scheduled between May and July.

Yesterday, CBOT March corn futures increased by 5 3/4 cents to $4.90 per bushel. Corn futures also increased in both Chicago and Paris. Weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1,541,423 tons (compared to 1,442,252 the previous week and 746,933 a year earlier), bringing total season exports to 19.25 million tons (compared to 14.75 million last season). On Monday, the new U.S. president signaled a more measured approach to tariffs, which somewhat calmed the markets. Negotiations are expected to improve the U.S. trade situation.

AgRural estimates that the harvesting campaign of the Brazil’s first corn crop is 4.1% complete, while the second crop has been planted on 0.3% of the planned acreage. Iran is seeking to purchase 120,000 tons of feed corn, 120,000 tons of feed barley, and 60,000 tons of soymeal with March–April delivery. Algeria is looking to buy 240,000 tons of feed corn from Brazil or Argentina for February delivery. Since the start of the season, EU corn imports have outpaced last year’s levels by 4%. In December, China imported just 340,000 tons of corn, a 93% drop compared to December 2023. Total 2024 imports amounted to 13.64 million tons, down 50%.

Yesterday, Chicago March soybean futures have gone up by 33 1/4 cents to $10.67 1/4 per bushel. Meanwhile, the soybean complex in Chicago, rapeseed futures in Paris, and canola futures in Canada increased. U.S. weekly soybean export sales totaled 973,145 tons (compared to 1,357,370 the previous week and 1,184,956 a year earlier), with total season exports reaching 32.30 million tons (compared to 26.78 million last season). AgRural estimates that the harvesting campaign of soybeans in Brazil has been 1.7% complete. Abiove forecasts a soybean production of 171.7 million tons (up from the previous estimate of 168.7 million). Rainfall in Mato Grosso is delaying soybean harvesting and worsening crop quality, with harvesting campaign progress at the slowest pace in over a decade.

Drought conditions persist in Argentina, with particularly low rainfall in central and southern regions. Challenges in both Brazil and Argentina will significantly impact global markets, as seen in yesterday’s strong price rally.

Australian canola exports started the season strongly. Last season, exports began slowly and gradually increased over the following months. Rapeseed demand remains high, while supply is limited. EU soybean imports since the start of the season are more than 15% higher than last year. In December, Indonesia’s palm oil exports fell to 1.907 million tons (down from 2.005 million tons in November).