The EUR/USD currency pair increased to 1.0523. The price of US WTI light crude oil declined to 68.93 USD per barrel.

Wheat

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) May 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.87 3/4 per bushel, down 5 3/4 cents on the day. The wheat market remained under pressure throughout Tuesday’s session, with Chicago SRW, Kansas City HRW, and Minneapolis HRS futures all finishing in negative territory. Texas winter wheat ratings improved slightly, reaching 37% good/excellent, while Oklahoma's ratings dropped to 34%, signaling potential production concerns. On the global front, Russian wheat exports for the 2024/25 marketing year were revised down to 42.2 million metric tons (MMT), while the European Union reported a sharp decline in soft wheat exports, totaling 13.65 MMT for the season, significantly lower than the 21.31 MMT exported during the same period last year.

Corn

CBOT May 2025 corn futures closed at $4.94 1/4 per bushel, down 2 3/4 cents. The corn market struggled to gain traction, as ethanol production concerns weighed on sentiment. Analysts expect ethanol production to remain steady or decline, as margins remain under pressure and stockpiles build up. Brazil’s second corn crop planting progress was reported at 53.6%, trailing last year’s 59% pace. Meanwhile, February corn exports from Brazil are projected at 1.29 MMT, reflecting a slight increase from prior estimates.

Soybeans

CBOT May 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.48 3/4 per bushel, up 1 1/4 cents, showing resilience despite a mixed session. Soymeal futures gained between $1.80 and $2.10 per ton, while soyoil futures fell 25 to 30 points. Brazil’s soybean harvest progress reached 36.4%, lagging last year’s 38% pace. February soybean exports from Brazil were revised down to 9.35 MMT from the previous 9.72 MMT estimate. Meanwhile, EU soybean imports climbed to 8.95 MMT, an increase from 8.03 MMT in the same period last year.

The U.S. winter wheat crop continues to show mixed conditions, as dryness in the Plains has taken a toll on Oklahoma’s crop ratings, which fell by 6 percentage points to 34% good/excellent. Texas, on the other hand, saw a slight improvement, with ratings rising by 4 percentage points to 37% good/excellent. The contrasting conditions highlight the ongoing production risks in the U.S. winter wheat belt.

Brazil is experiencing wheat supply constraints as domestic demand rises. The country’s imports during the first 10 days of February totaled 265,450 tons, significantly lower than the 529,140 tons imported during the same month last year. With a smaller-than-expected wheat harvest, Brazil may continue to increase imports in the coming months, adding additional demand pressure to global wheat markets.

In Argentina, recent heavy rains have provided much-needed relief to crops following an extended dry spell. The Rosario Grains Exchange noted that the rains have stabilized conditions for both corn and soybeans, alleviating prior concerns of drought-induced yield reductions. This improvement in crop outlook may help boost South American export availability in the coming months.

China remains an active buyer of U.S. soybeans, with the latest USDA export inspections confirming that 484,000 tons of soybeans were destined for China in the latest reporting period. Overall U.S. soybean inspections rose to 859,000 tons, up from 727,000 tons the previous week, reinforcing strong demand for U.S. supplies despite ongoing competition from South America.

U.S. wheat and corn export inspections, however, have been less impressive. Wheat inspections totaled 376,000 tons, an increase from 250,000 tons the previous week but still below last year’s 482,000 tons. Corn inspections came in at 1.134 million tons, sharply lower than the prior week’s 1.623 million tons, signaling potential export headwinds.

In Brazil, the soybean production outlook was revised downward as AgRural lowered its 2024/25 production estimate to 168.2 MMT, down from 171 MMT. Lower yields in key states have led to a more cautious outlook, with further adjustments possible if harvest progress continues to lag.

Political uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy remains a key market factor, as President Trump reaffirmed plans to implement tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting on March 4. Any potential disruptions to trade flows could have significant implications for grain markets, particularly for U.S. corn and soybean exports.

Palm oil prices remain firm, supported by supply disruptions in Malaysia and Indonesia. Recent flooding has constrained production, and traders expect tight supply conditions to persist for the next 2-3 months, keeping global vegetable oil markets on edge.

Ukraine is expecting a rebound in corn production for the 2025/26 season, with forecasts suggesting 30.5 MMT, up 17% from the current marketing year. The increase is attributed to expanded planting areas and improved growing conditions, which could strengthen Ukraine’s role in global grain exports.

Australia’s winter crop production has dropped sharply following last year’s record harvest. Wheat production in 2023/24 fell by 32%, while total winter crop output declined by 27% due to dry conditions and lower yields. The production downturn could lead to increased reliance on other major exporters in the coming months.

Argentina has revised its shipping regulations along the Paraná-Paraguay River, a key grain export route, allowing for increased cargo loads. The change is expected to boost grain shipments by up to 7%, providing greater export capacity as the country looks to maximize shipments of corn and soybeans.

In the United States, the EPA’s approval of year-round E15 ethanol sales in the Midwest has sparked debate. While ethanol producers see this as a long-term demand boost for corn, the oil industry is pushing for national-level regulations to prevent potential supply chain disruptions. This regulatory uncertainty could influence ethanol and corn markets in the months ahead.

Overall, the grain markets remained mixed, with wheat and corn futures slipping lower while soybeans managed to post slight gains. The focus remains on Brazil’s slow soybean harvest, Argentina’s improving crop conditions, and uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies. With global export flows and policy changes still in flux, volatility in grain markets is likely to persist.