Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) March 2025 wheat futures started the day at $5.79 3/4 per bushel, down 8 cents from the previous session. The wheat market continued its downward trajectory amid a weak demand outlook and larger-than-expected global supplies. Pressure remains on U.S. exports, with Russian and European wheat competing aggressively in global tenders. The latest estimates from Russia’s IKAR consultancy reduced 2024/25 wheat export projections to 42.5 million metric tons, reflecting a more constrained outlook for Russian shipments. Meanwhile, in India, concerns over unseasonably high March temperatures raised fears of yield losses for the fourth consecutive year, potentially tightening global wheat supplies.
CBOT March 2025 corn futures opened at $4.93 1/2 per bushel, down 3/4 cents from the prior close. The corn market remains caught between supply-side strength and ongoing demand uncertainties. In Brazil, second-crop corn planting progress reached 53.6%, still lagging last year’s pace due to soybean harvest delays. However, the country’s total corn production outlook was slightly revised upward to 125.5 million metric tons, supported by improved March weather expectations. In the U.S., ethanol production remained relatively stable at 1.081 million barrels per day, but ethanol stockpiles saw their largest weekly increase since January 2023, climbing to 27.571 million barrels, adding to concerns over demand constraints.
CBOT March 2025 soybean futures started the session at $10.41 1/4 per bushel, down 7 1/2 cents from yesterday but showing early signs of recovery. The soybean market has been weighed down by Brazil’s accelerating harvest, which reached 36.4% completion, nearly matching last year’s pace despite earlier delays. Argentina’s soybean sector faces fresh uncertainty after a major oilseed union threatened a nationwide strike in processing plants over wage disputes, potentially disrupting soymeal and soyoil exports. Meanwhile, U.S. soybean exports saw a boost, with the latest weekly inspections confirming 484,000 tons headed to China, reinforcing the country's reliance on U.S. supplies.
The global wheat market is experiencing a mix of bearish and bullish pressures, with Russia’s reduced export outlook countered by competitive pricing from Europe and Australia. The European Union reported a significant drop in soft wheat exports, totaling 13.65 million metric tons for the season—well below last year’s 21.31 million metric tons. Indian wheat traders remain on edge as March temperatures are forecasted to rise up to 6 degrees Celsius above normal, potentially damaging key crops and raising questions about India’s 40% wheat import tariff, which may need to be revised if domestic shortages emerge.
Corn markets are watching developments in U.S.-Mexico trade relations, with President Trump confirming that new tariffs on Mexico and Canada will take effect on April 2, a delay from the initial March 4 timeline. Any potential trade disruptions could alter North American grain flows. Meanwhile, demand for U.S. corn remains tepid, with weekly export sales expected to range between 800,000 and 1.65 million metric tons, according to analysts ahead of the USDA report. In South America, Brazil’s Safrinha corn planting delays remain a focus, as late planting could lead to lower-than-optimal yields if the crop encounters dry conditions later in the season.
Soybean production in Brazil remains on track for a record-breaking harvest, with estimates reaching 170.4 million metric tons, slightly above prior forecasts. However, concerns remain over delayed planting of Brazil’s second corn crop, which follows soybean harvests in key states. In Argentina, the potential strike at soybean processing plants could disrupt global soymeal and soyoil supplies, adding uncertainty to an already volatile vegetable oil market. Malaysian palm oil futures saw further losses, falling 2.17% overnight, reflecting concerns over weakening global demand and increased competition from South American soyoil exports.
Weather conditions remain a critical factor across key grain-producing regions. Heavy rainfall in Argentina is expected to increase soil moisture and support late-planted crops but may disrupt early harvests and lead to localized flooding. Meanwhile, Brazil’s South-Central and Southeast regions are forecasted to remain hot and dry over the next two weeks, with temperatures 2-6 degrees Celsius above normal, which could impact sugarcane and coffee crops. In the U.S., winter wheat production remains unchanged at 36.4 million metric tons, but low soil moisture levels in parts of the Midwest raise concerns about spring freeze risks if sudden cold snaps follow an early warm-up.
The grain markets are also reacting to financial and geopolitical developments. The U.S. Department of Energy reported an increase in ethanol stocks, which could weigh on corn prices if demand does not pick up. Meanwhile, the USDA is under scrutiny over delayed farm payments, with Senator Cory Booker warning that farmers relying on government support are facing financial stress.
The global grain trade remains on edge amid shifting production trends, policy uncertainties, and logistical challenges. With key supply regions facing weather volatility, labor disputes, and trade tensions, market participants will closely monitor upcoming export reports, weather updates, and geopolitical developments that could shape price movements in the weeks ahead.