Grain Highlights 18.08.2021

Due to the drought in Canada, the rapeseed production will fall from 20 million tons in the initial forecasts to 15 - 17 million tons and some analysts expect 12 million tons.

- As of 01.07.2021 (beginning of the new season), wheat  stocks in Russia reach 7.7 million tons, which is 0.25 million tons more than the previous year and is the highest level since 2018.

- Over the period of September - July, corn exports from Ukraine reached 23.4 million tons, which is 19% less than 2019/20. The largest customer was the EU with a share of 31% followed by China.

- Yesterday, FOB price of wheat in Ukrainian ports fell by 10 - 15 USD/ton to 260 - 270 USD/ton against the background of the intensification of sales to producers and the suspicion that soon there will be no opportunity to sell more at the currently high price. At these FOB prices, Asian buyers have to pay 360 USD/ton, provided that Australian and Indian wheat are priced at 320 - 330 USD/ton C&F, which is also the price of feed corn. This limits the rise in the price of feed wheat on the markets.

- Forward prices of Ukrainian corn increased by 10 USD/ton to 250 - 260 USD/ton with delivery to port over the last week. Further growth is limited due to the fact that exporters have purchased large quantities and are about to export. The growth in corn is formed by the rapid rise in price of wheat due to the decline in forecasts for the Russian wheat production. Wheat prices reached levels of 270 - 280 USD/ton with port delivery. About 50-60% of the wheat production in Ukraine has fodder qualities due to prolonged rainfall. The large supply of feed wheat will keep the price of corn growing.

- AgRural lowered its forecast for the corn production in Brazil in 2020/21 to 82.2 million tons. South Korean NOFI bought 138,000 tons of corn with delivery in November at a price of 322 USD/ton C&F, most likely from South America or South Africa.

- According to Abitrigo, 540,800 tons of wheat were imported into Brazil in June compared to 590,500 tons in May and 400,700 tons in June 2020. Deliveries from Argentina were 433,600 tons. Over the period of January - June wheat imports totaled 3.3 million tons (3.4).

- Over the period of 01.07 - 15.08.2021, soybean imports in the EU-27 reached 1.47 million tons (2.03 years earlier). Imports of soymeal were1.59 million tons (2.45), palm oil imports reached 473,682 tons (865,803) and rapeseed imports were 427,277 tons (447,212).

- Due to the drought in Canada, the rapeseed production will fall from 20 million tons in the initial forecasts to 15 - 17 million tons and some analysts expect 12 million tons. The situation with other crops is similar.

- According to preliminary estimates, Algeria has purchased 200,000 - 250,000 tons of milling wheat at a price of 348 - 351 USD/ton C&F. At the previous tender, 300,000 tons of wheat were purchased at a price of 320 USD/ton C&F.

- Egypt's state-owned company GASC is looking to buy 30,000 tons of soyoil and 10,000 tons of sunseed oil with delivery in October.

- The Government of India will allow the import of 1.5 million tons of soymeal at an import tax of 16.5%.