- Over the week of September 8-14, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 46.5 USD/ton (39.4 weeks earlier), 26.1 USD/ton on barley (27) and 51.6 USD/ton on corn. The Union of Grain Exporters reports that the export window is closing, tariffs will rise in the coming weeks, exports will fall sharply and demand for Russian wheat will also decline significantly. It follows that domestic prices will fall. ProZerno expects the export tax to exceed 50 USD/ton at the end of September. In September, the new Russian and Ukrainian corn production will enter the market. Their prices will significantly affect the wheat price. For now, demand for Ukrainian corn remains weak. From 01.10.2021, the export tax on sunseed oil will increase to 227.2 USD/ton at a price of 1,324.7 USD/ton. In September, the tax was 169.9 USD/ton at a price of 1,242.8 USD/ton.

- In recent weeks, Chinese importers have canceled several supplies of feed barley from the Black Sea region due to lower-than-expected domestic demand and expectations for a good corn production. According to traders, it is about 400 thousand tons of barley from Ukraine with delivery in the fourth quarter of 2021.

- As of September 3, 2021, 22.5 million hectares of wheat have been harvested in Russia, 66.9 million tons of wheat have been harvested. Another 6.2 million hectares of spring wheat remain to be harvested and 9-14 million tons of wheat to be harvested. The total harvested wheat is expected to be 76.4 million tons gross or 73.3 million tons net weight. SovEcon lowered its forecast for the whet production from 76.2 million tons to 75.4 million tons. The Russian Grain Union expects a grain production in the country in 2021 of 118 million tons, including wheat production of over 75 million tons. Grain exports are projected at 45 million tons, including wheat exports of 35 million tons.

- According to the forecast of Strategie Grains, the rapeseed production in the EU will reach 16.93 million tons in 2021/22 (17.03 in the previous estimate and +1.9% compared to 2020/21). The sunseed production is projected at 9.63 million tons (9.74 and +10.6%) and the EU soybean production is expected at 2.66 million tons (-0.06 and +3.2%).

- Markit raises its forecast for the US corn production in 2021/22 by 4.6 million tons to 383.3 million tons. The August forecast of the USDA is for a corn production of 374.6 million tons and in 2020/21 the corn production reached 360.3 million tons. The soybean production is estimated at 118.6 million tons (-2.9 million tons compared to the previous estimate and 112.5 million tons in 2020/21). With a corn production of 383.3 million tons, the ending stocks of corn in the United States will most likely be within 36-38 million tons. It should also be taken into account the demand for US corn will be lower - 40 million tons.

- Safras & Mercado estimates sales of the old 2020/21 soybean crop in Brazil at 85.9% of the total production (+4% for the week) or 117.84 million tons of the expected 137.19 million tons. A year earlier, sales were 97.9% and the average level for the last five years was 88.5%. Sales of the new 2021/22 soybean crop reach 25.6% of the new soybean production or 26.34 million tons from the expected 142.24 million tons (49.3% last year and 24.9% on average for the last five years).